Educational dementia risk profile

The evidence behind the True Mind modifiable burden index.

True Mind combines 14 Lancet-identified modifiable dementia risk factors into an educational, 0–100 burden index—weighted by how strongly each factor is linked to dementia in large studies.

The True Mind tool is based on the 2024 Lancet Commission on dementia prevention, intervention, and care. That report reviews meta-analyses and large cohort studies on 14 modifiable risk factors and estimates how much each contributes to dementia at the population level. We scale those contributions into the weights used in this tool.

True Mind is intentionally a modifiable burden index, not a calibrated 10-year risk calculator. It's designed for education and conversation with a clinician—not for diagnosis or precise prediction.

12 factors scoredCardiovascular, sensory, mood, lifestyle, and social factors are included in the 0–100 burden index.
2 contextual factorsEducation and air pollution are shown for context, not scored directly in v1.
Habits, not perfectionSuggested actions use proven behaviour-change ideas: small, specific steps linked to existing routines.

Evidence snapshots for each factor

Each card shows how a factor is weighted inside True Mind, a representative study or review, a one-line evidence summary, and an example "tiny habit" inspired by habit-formation research.

Education & cognitive reserve

Context & background
True Mind weight: Context only · not directly scored in v1

Evidence snapshot

Lower formal education is consistently linked with higher dementia risk at the population level, likely via lower cognitive reserve. Lifelong learning and mentally effortful activities appear protective even later in life.

Anchor study: Livingston et al., Lancet Commission 2024 – dementia prevention, intervention, and care.

Example tiny habit

After breakfast on weekdays, spend 10 focused minutes on a mentally effortful activity (language app, structured course, or serious reading) before opening email or social media.

Air pollution (fine particles & traffic-related)

Context & background
True Mind weight: Context only · not directly scored in v1

Evidence snapshot

Chronic exposure to fine particulate air pollution (PM2.5) and traffic-related pollutants is associated with modestly higher dementia risk, probably via vascular injury and neuroinflammation.

Anchor study: Recent meta-analyses of PM2.5 and dementia (e.g., large multicohort studies summarized in the Lancet Commission 2024).

Example tiny habit

Pick one high-traffic route you use regularly and replace it with a cleaner alternative (side street, park path, or indoor walking) on two days per week to start.

Blood pressure (hypertension)

Body & cardiovascular
True Mind weight: 2 · Moderate weight in True Mind

Evidence snapshot

Mid- and late-life hypertension is robustly associated with higher dementia risk; trials like SPRINT-MIND suggest that tighter BP control reduces cognitive decline risk in higher-risk adults.

Anchor study: SPRINT-MIND (Williamson et al., JAMA 2019) – intensive BP control reduced combined MCI/dementia outcomes.

Example tiny habit

After brushing your teeth at night, sit down, put your feet on the floor, and take one home BP reading, writing it in the same small notebook or phone note every time.

High LDL cholesterol

Body & cardiovascular
True Mind weight: 7 · One of the heavier weights in True Mind

Evidence snapshot

Newer analyses link elevated LDL and atherosclerosis with higher risk of vascular and mixed dementias; lipid-lowering and overall vascular risk management appear protective.

Anchor study: Livingston et al., Lancet Commission 2024 – high LDL added as a new, higher-impact late-life risk factor.

Example tiny habit

On the same day each week (e.g., Monday lunch), open your patient portal and glance at your last lipid panel; if >12 months old, send yourself a one-line note to ask your clinician about repeat testing.

Diabetes and glycaemia

Body & cardiovascular
True Mind weight: 2 · Moderate weight in True Mind

Evidence snapshot

Type 2 diabetes and poor glycaemic control are associated with substantially higher dementia risk, possibly via microvascular injury, inflammation, and hypoglycaemia-related insults.

Anchor study: Cao et al., meta-analysis 2024 – diabetes accounts for ~5% of dementia PAF in pooled cohorts.

Example tiny habit

After your main evening meal, take 60 seconds to log what you ate and any glucose reading in the same place every day; use that log at your next visit to adjust meds or diet.

Obesity & central adiposity

Body & cardiovascular
True Mind weight: 1 · Lighter but still meaningful weight

Evidence snapshot

Midlife obesity and central adiposity are associated with higher dementia risk, likely via vascular, inflammatory, and metabolic pathways; the relationship is more complex in late life.

Anchor study: Brenowitz et al., 2021 – midlife obesity associated with higher later dementia risk; late-life underweight patterns differ.

Example tiny habit

Attach one tiny food swap to a fixed cue: for example, after you plate dinner, automatically add a fist-sized portion of vegetables before anything else goes on the plate.

Physical inactivity

Body & cardiovascular
True Mind weight: 2 · Moderate weight in True Mind

Evidence snapshot

Higher regular physical activity is associated with lower incidence of all-cause dementia and Alzheimer’s disease, with benefits seen even at moderate doses.

Anchor study: Meta-analyses of physical activity and dementia (e.g., Iso-Markku et al., Br J Sports Med 2022).

Example tiny habit

Pick one daily cue you already have (e.g., after morning coffee) and add a 5-minute brisk walk to it; only increase duration once that 5-minute loop feels automatic for 2–3 weeks.

Hearing loss

Senses & head
True Mind weight: 7 · One of the heaviest weights in True Mind

Evidence snapshot

Hearing loss is one of the largest modifiable contributors to dementia risk; treating hearing loss with hearing aids or other interventions appears to slow cognitive decline in older adults at elevated risk.

Anchor study: ACHIEVE trial (Lin et al., Lancet 2023) – hearing intervention slowed cognitive decline over 3 years in higher-risk adults.

Example tiny habit

Within the next month, set one specific cue to act: for example, when you finish this assessment, write down a date in your calendar titled “Book hearing test” and treat it like any other medical appointment.

Vision loss

Senses & head
True Mind weight: 2 · Moderate weight in True Mind

Evidence snapshot

Emerging data suggest untreated visual impairment is linked to higher dementia risk, plausibly via reduced stimulation, social withdrawal, and shared vascular pathways; cataract surgery and vision correction may be protective.

Anchor study: Summarized in the Lancet Commission 2024 – recent cohorts link untreated visual impairment with higher dementia risk.

Example tiny habit

Tie your eye care to a date you’ll remember: each year in your birthday month, schedule or confirm a comprehensive eye exam and add it as a repeating calendar event.

Traumatic brain injury (TBI)

Senses & head
True Mind weight: 3 · Mid-range weight in True Mind

Evidence snapshot

Moderate–severe TBI and repeated head injuries are consistently linked with higher dementia risk; prevention and avoiding further injuries are key, especially for people with prior TBI.

Anchor study: Meta-analyses of TBI and dementia (e.g., Kuring et al. 2020) – prior TBI, especially multiple or severe, increases dementia risk.

Example tiny habit

Create a “helmet first” rule: whenever you touch your bike/scooter or step onto a ladder, the very next action is to put on your helmet or check your footing before anything else.

Smoking

Mind & lifestyle
True Mind weight: 2 · Moderate weight in True Mind

Evidence snapshot

Current smoking is associated with substantially higher dementia risk; large cohorts show that quitting, especially in midlife, meaningfully reduces that excess risk over time.

Anchor study: Jeong et al., JAMA Netw Open 2023 – smoking cessation was associated with lower dementia risk vs continued smoking.

Example tiny habit

Choose one high-risk time of day (e.g., after lunch) and pre-decide a replacement routine: when the urge hits, you automatically walk for 3 minutes or drink a glass of water before making any decision about smoking.

Harmful alcohol use

Mind & lifestyle
True Mind weight: 1 · Lighter weight but still relevant

Evidence snapshot

Heavy or binge-pattern alcohol use is associated with increased risk of dementia and other brain outcomes; there is no clear ‘safe’ threshold for brain health.

Anchor study: Summarized in the Lancet Commission 2024 – heavy and binge drinking are associated with higher dementia risk.

Example tiny habit

Pick two “automatic no-alcohol nights” each week (for example, Sunday and Monday) and decide in advance what you’ll drink instead (tea, sparkling water) so the decision is made before the craving.

Depression & persistent low mood

Mind & lifestyle
True Mind weight: 3 · Mid-range weight in True Mind

Evidence snapshot

Depression is associated with about a doubling of dementia risk in many cohorts; it may partly be prodromal, but treating depression and supporting mental health is important for quality of life and may reduce risk.

Anchor study: Elser et al., JAMA Neurol 2023 & subsequent meta-analyses – depression across the life course is linked with higher dementia risk.

Example tiny habit

Set a simple daily check-in: at the same time each evening, write one sentence about how your mood was that day and one small thing that helped, then bring that log to your next clinician visit.

Low social contact & isolation

Mind & lifestyle
True Mind weight: 5 · Relatively heavy weight in True Mind

Evidence snapshot

Low social contact and persistent loneliness are consistently associated with higher dementia risk; regular, meaningful social engagement appears protective.

Anchor study: Recent systematic reviews on loneliness/social isolation and dementia, summarised in the Lancet Commission 2024.

Example tiny habit

Choose one weekly social cue: for example, every Sunday after breakfast, send a short message or make a 5-minute call to one person you’d like to keep in your life.

Important

True Mind does not diagnose dementia or give an exact probability of developing it. The information here summarizes associations seen in population studies. Any change to medications, hearing or vision devices, alcohol or tobacco use, or mental health care should be discussed with a qualified clinician who knows you.